Stochastic Traffic Flow Prediction Over the Section of Road Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

The prediction of traffic flow on the roads is very important for efficient management of well-managed and intelligent transport system, which is essential for the developed country. The traffic flow is subdivided into vehicle types and routes and are control with different ways like signal system, road infrastructure upgrading, ramp mattering, and is quite good for the intelligent transport system. But it’s quite challenging with mixed traffic flow (congestion) with no traffic signal system and ramp mattering. In order to overcome the congestion with mixed traffic flow, the prediction method can play an important role in overcoming congestion of flow on road section. In this study, A Monte Carlo Simulation algorithm is proposed to predict the traffic flow. Different hypothesis tests are applied with goodness-of-fit. Also the MATLAB distribution fit toolbox is used to check the stochastic behavior of traffic flow. The proposed prediction method is validated with error estimation between the collected and predicted data. The current study is useful to predict the future state of traffic flow over the section of road for the formulation of intelligent transform system.