Security Dilemma in Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations During Islamic Emirate Government

Abstract

Since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban's control of power, there has been a lot of optimism in Pakistan’s policy and security makers. The perceptions were very optimistic, based on per-conceived assumptions about the Taliban and Pakistan's security and insecurity. The Taliban's political behaviour and the ongoing security chaos in Afghanistan proved all optimism into a zero-sum game. The expectations were or are still in Pakistan that the pro-Pakistan government will ensure its security interests and minimize pressure on the strategic flank (western border). The central security threat of India and its pro-active engagements with the past governments in Kabul and under the US security umbrella kept Pakistan’s policymakers in perpetual security dilemma. The optimism turned into blurred realities as India re-established its engagement with the Afghan Taliban and the latter welcomed and applauded the efforts for development and reconstruction. The return of the TTP, ISK, and the border clashes with the Afghan Taliban marked the end of pre-perceived jubilation in Pakistan’s policy circles. The great powers' geo-politics in the post-US withdrawal is also important to mention. The Afghan coldrum affected and will likely affect Pakistan’s internal security parameters. The state of Pakistan’s is now in strategic trap relating to decision-making and policy approach towards Afghan Taliban. The economic down turns are also important to mention in this context. Each side poses deep suspicions to each other’s intentions and ends. The operational levels or the strategic environment is overheated, the rise of insurgency in ex-FATA is important in this context. The dilemma has surpassed the operational levels and now is in the psychological parameters.

        Keywords: perceptions, misperceptions, blame game, terrorism, spiral cycle, TTP, security implications